Clear lead for Clinton after conventions
By Dan Balz and Scott Clement
Hillary Clinton has emerged from the two major party conventions and their aftermath with an eight-point lead over Donald Trump, aided by a consolidation of support among Democrats and a failure so far by Republicans to rally equally behind their nominee, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Clinton and her running mate, Sen. Tim Kaine (Va.), now lead Trump and his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence (Ind.), by 50 percent to 42 percent among registered voters, double the four-point advantage the Democrats held on the eve of the Republican convention in mid-July. Among likely voters, the Democratic nominee leads by 51 percent to 44 percent.
In a four-way race that includes Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, Clinton leads Trump by 45 percent to 37 percent, with Johnson at 8 percent and Stein at 4 percent. Before the Republican convention, she had a four-percentage-point lead in a four-way matchup.
The poll confirms that Clinton received a larger post-convention bounce than Trump did from his convention. But she appears to have been aided as well by days of controversy that Trump generated with his sharp criticism of a Muslim American family whose son, Army Capt. Humayun Khan, was killed in Iraq in 2004 and who rebuked Trump on the stage of the Democratic convention.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton announced Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) as her running mate on Friday night in a text message to her supporters.
Elected to the United States Senate in 2012, Kaine previously served as mayor of Richmond from 1998-2001, lieutenant governor of Virginia from 2002-2005, governor of Virginia from 2006-2010, and chair of the Democratic National Committee from 2009 to 2011.
Kaine has a solid record on many core Democratic issues. He supports President Obama’s Affordable Care Act and has long been opposed to the use of the death penalty. Kaine is a strong supporter of comprehensive immigration reform, favoring a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. As governor, he pushed to offer universal pre-kindargarten and also signed a bill to ban smoking in Virginia bars and restaurants.
Additionally, Kaine has spoken out strongly about the need to address global climate change. In 2012, he said “humans have a responsibility to do something” about climate change. He has a lifetime score of 91 percent from the League of Conservation Voters, opposed the Keystone XL pipeline and protected 400,000 acres of land from being developed when he was governor of Virginia.
Kaine has a strong pro-gun control record. While running for the Senate in 2012, he received an “F” from the National Rifle Association. As a governor, he vetoed a bill that would have allowed the carrying of guns in vehicles and has introduced gun control bills in the Senate.
Widely seen as a safe pick, Kaine is well-liked by his Senate colleagues.
As a Catholic, Kane recently acknowledged he’s personally “opposed to abortion.” During his tenure as governor, he signed abortion-restricting laws such as a so-called informed consent measure that he innocuously described as giving “women information about a whole series of things, the health consequences, et cetera, and information about adoption.” His views on reproductive rights seem to have evolved, however, and as a senator he’s received a perfect score from Planned Parenthood for his pro-choice voting record.
By Cathleen Decker
Hillary Clinton’s popularity has slumped in California under an unrelenting challenge from Bernie Sanders, who has succeeded in breaching the demographic wall Clinton had counted on to protect her in the state’s presidential primary, a new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll has found.
As he has done across the country this primary season, Sanders commands the support of younger voters by huge margins in advance of Tuesday’s primary — even among Latinos and Asians, voter groups that Clinton easily won when she ran eight years ago. Many of his backers come from a large pool of voters who have registered for the first time in the weeks before the election.
Yet, Tuesday’s outcome remains difficult to predict, precisely because of the untested nature of Sanders’ following. That portends an intense fight in the final days of the campaign.
The Vermont senator has battled Clinton to a draw among all voters eligible for the Democratic primary, with 44% siding with him to 43% for Clinton. That represented a nine-point swing from a USC/Los Angeles Times poll in March, in which Clinton led handily.
WASHINGTON — Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has raised an unprecedented amount of money from small donors for his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. Now, he is using that massive list to help raise money for down-ballot Democrats that would be allies in Congress.
On Wednesday, the Sanders campaign sent out fundraising emails to its list on behalf of Nevada 4th district candidate Lucy Flores, Washington 7th district candidate Pramila Jayapal and New York 19th district candidate Zephyr Teachout. Flores is running against incumbent Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy, Teachout is running for an open seat vacated by Republicans, and Jayapal is running for an open seat in a safe Democratic district. All three have endorsed Sanders’ presidential campaign.
The fundraising emails for the three candidates are a first test of Sanders’ ability to increase the political power of progressives who overlap with his policy vision for the country. Whether or not he becomes the Democratic Party presidential nominee, he will retain a huge amount of power to build this wing of the party through his wide base of support of both voters and small donors.
“Bernie Sanders is doing the kind of coalition building and progressive power building that we’ve really wanted to see from a Democratic presidential candidate,” said Neil Sroka, communications director for the progressive group Democracy for America.
Donald Trump’s dominance has obscured just how unpopular he is outside of the conservative bubble. Even among Republican voters, if you dig a little deeper, you find that Trump has serious problems. Nate Silver elaborates: “Trump has consistently had the plurality of Republican support in polls, but those same polls suggest that Trump faces unusually high resistance from voters who don’t have him as their first choice…Many of them would be unhappy with a Trump nomination, more than is typical for a polling front-runner.”
In short, Trump is extremely popular with his base, but deeply disliked by everyone else. Republican voters who have supported Cruz or Rubio or Kasich will not reliably unite behind Trump in November – that’s a problem for the GOP. Now that Cruz and Kasich are backing away from their pledge to support Trump if he wins the nomination, the landscape is even more challenging.
It’s worse if you extend the analysis to include the broader electorate. As The Washington Post reports, “If Donald Trump secures the Republican presidential nomination, he would start the general election campaign as the least-popular candidate to represent either party in modern times…Three-quarters of women view him unfavorably. So do nearly two-thirds of independents, 80 percent of young adults, 85 percent of Hispanics and nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.”
These are daunting numbers. There is no discernible path to the White House for Trump against this kind of resistance. In the 32 years the Washington Post-ABC News survey has been tracking candidates, no major-party nominee has produced unfavorability scores like this.
Bernie Sanders is surging at exactly the right time, with just weeks to go before the early nominating contests. He holds a solid lead in the New Hampshire primary, according to the latest polls, and he’s close on Hillary Clinton’s heels in the Iowa caucuses.
Sanders’ newfound strength was on full view in this weekend’s debate, where he spoke powerfully about his ideas for health care and the economy, and won praise from many debate-watchers.
How close is the race for Democratic nominee?
Closer than it’s been all year. Over the last month, Sanders has climbed from 25 points down in the national polls to a more manageable, 15-point deficit. And in the early states, things look even tighter.
Sanders is ahead in New Hampshire, having held the polling lead since last summer. And in Iowa, Clinton’s once-imposing margin has shrunk to single digits, with some January polls giving Sanders the edge.
In the last few weeks, Americans (and the media) have watched in awe as a New York real estate magnate prone to bellicose behavior and hyperbole has become the GOP’s leading candidate for the White House.
But how did this come to be? A lot of it has to do with education.
Trump’s support is strongest with Republicans in the Midwest, conservatives across the country who do not have a college degree and (perhaps not surprisingly) those who report the most negative views of immigration and Mexican immigrants in particular, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released last week.
To be clear, the poll found that 60 percent of all Americans support the idea of offering undocumented immigrants currently in the United States some form of legal status, and 57 percent told pollsters they believe that immigrants strengthen the country. But there are plenty of people who see things differently. And those people appear to be concentrated among whites, Republicans and those with lower levels of education.
Before the Iowa Caucus in December of 2007, Pew Research reported that Barack Obama was 26 points behind Hillary Clinton. In the “Democratic Horse Race,” Hillary Clinton enjoyed 48% support while Obama was stuck at 22%. According to Gallup in late 2007, Hillary Clinton held a commanding lead over Senator Obama.
Of course, we all know that because of a lead that expanded to nearly 30 points, there was little chance for Obama to win at that point. If anything, the words “Clinton has led the Democratic pack in every Gallup Poll conducted between November 2006 and October 2007” should have meant that only one candidate was electable, or capable of winning the primaries.
President Obama won, despite the polls, and Hillary Clinton lost, primarily because one candidate was able to generate immense energy and enthusiasm.
Bernie Sanders is steadily creeping ahead of Hillary Clinton in the early nomination states. The Vermont senator has led Clinton, the presumed front-runner, in the past few polls in New Hampshire, posting a 9-point lead in an NBC/Marist poll from last weekend. Now, a new poll shows Sanders leading Clinton for the first time in Iowa, albeit by a narrow margin.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday finds 41 percent of likely Iowa caucus voters supporting Sanders, with Clinton right behind him at 40 percent—still well within the poll’s margin of error of 3.4 percentage points. Quinnipiac’s numbers weren’t too encouraging for Vice President Joe Biden, who had just 12 percent support in Iowa, a state that doomed his last presidential campaign.
Sanders has invested heavily in the earliest caucus and primary states, banking on a string of early victories to transform him from novelty challenger to legit contender. His campaign currently has 53 field organizers in 15 offices in Iowa. Clinton, in turn, bumped up her number of paid organizers last week from 47 to 78.
Senator Bernie Sanders is making significant inroads against Hillary Rodham Clinton in New Hampshire, with a new poll showing him in a statistical tie with Mrs. Clinton in the state.
A new survey released by Franklin Pierce University and The Boston Herald found that 44 percent of Democrats in the state are backing Mr. Sanders compared with 37 percent for Mrs. Clinton, a difference that is within the poll’s margin of error.
The last Democratic poll from the group in March showed Mr. Sanders with support of 8 percent of likely voters, demonstrating a significant erosion in the former secretary of state’s lead.
A WMUR Granite State poll released late Tuesday showed Clinton taking 42 percent support over Sanders at 36 percent. Several recent polls have shown Sanders gaining on Clinton in New Hampshire, but the WMUR survey shows the contest is at its closest point yet.
Still, the race is essentially unchanged from late June, when the same poll showed Clinton at 43 percent and Sanders at 35.
Rounding out the field in New Hampshire are Vice President Biden at 5 percent, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and former Sen. Jim Webb at 1 percent each.
There has been intense speculation recently about whether Biden will run for president. Many believe he could shake up the race by pulling some establishment support from Clinton.
But in the early stages of the race, it’s Sanders who has emerged as the biggest threat to Clinton in the the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
He’s galvanized the support of many grassroots liberals and attracted the biggest crowds of anyone running for president on either side. Some Democrats believe he could win one or both of the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Still, Clinton remains the heavy favorite, leading nationally by more than 30 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls.
The campaign of Bernie Sanders scored a major coup Saturday, earning the first endorsement of any candidate by a national environmental group, Friends of the Earth.
Granted, the field is limited to Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, given that no living Republican candidate will ever earn the endorsement of any environmental group, local, state, or national. But with the narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders, this endorsement is no small thing.
Donald Trump, of course, currently the leading Republican candidate, announced back in January of 2014 that “This very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit has got to stop. Our planet is freezing, record low temps,and our GW scientists are stuck in ice.”
Donald Trump, the provocative reality television star who for much of the last month has upended the 2016 Republican primary, is still doing well in polls in a pair of early nominating states despite recent rhetoric that many party leaders have denounced.
In New Hampshire, which holds the first presidential primary, Trump leads the field with 21% support from potential GOP primary voters, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday. His closest competitor, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is at 14%, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker receiving 12% support and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 7%.
Businessman Donald Trump surged into the lead for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, with almost twice the support of his closest rival, just as he ignited a new controversy after making disparaging remarks about Sen. John McCain’s Vietnam War service, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Support for Trump fell sharply on the one night that voters were surveyed following those comments. Telephone interviewing for the poll began Thursday, and most calls were completed before the news about the remarks was widely reported.
If Trump were to receive the GOP nomination, 62 percent of Americans say they definitely would not consider voting for him. In contrast, just over 4 in 10 say they would definitely not consider voting for Clinton, Bush or Sanders.
Trump, however, could become a factor if he were to leave the GOP race and run for president as an independent. The survey shows that in a hypothetical three-way race, Clinton is at 46 percent, Bush is at 30 percent and Trump is at 20 percent among registered voters.
Trump takes more support away from Bush than Clinton in such a contest. In a head-to-head matchup, Clinton tops Bush by 50 percent to 44 percent among registered voters.
Bernie Sanders took negative super PAC ad attacking him and turned it into $800,000 in campaign donations.
The Boston Globe reported:
On June 25 a super PAC linked to former Maryland governor Martin O’Malley, another declared Democratic candidate, spent about $10,000 on online ads critical of Sanders’ record on gun control, which is, for a Democrat, notably friendly to gun owners.
Sanders’ team fought back, using the same rhetoric that Warren so effectively employs against her many critics: Frame the attack as an assault on the progressive movement and raise buckets of cash off of it.
The day after the ads began, Sanders’ campaign blasted an e-mail to supporters requesting help. Within 48 hours they’d raised more than $800,000, according to a source familiar with his fund-raising.
Bernie Sanders is running a grassroots insurgency campaign that by nature will only grow stronger if it is attacked through negative campaigning. The O’Malley campaign made the decision to go negative early because they appear to have been caught off guard by the quick rise of Sanders.
Bernie Sanders gave Wisconsin Republicans a reality check on the meaning of extremism during his rally in Madison.
Advisers to Bernie Sanders have argued that his grassroots network of small-dollar donors could raise him the roughly $50 million the independent senator from Vermont will need to run a credible, competitive campaign in the Democratic presidential primaries.
They may be right.
On Friday, the Sanders campaign announced that it has raised more than $1.5 million online in the 24 hours since he announced his candidacy. It is a surprisingly heavy haul for a candidate whom some in the Democratic chattering class have cast off as a gadfly and viewed as unable to wrest the nomination from the overwhelming favorite, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
The donations came from a broad base of supporters — some 35,000 donors who gave an average of $43.54 a piece, according to the Sanders campaign. The campaign also said it signed up more than 100,000 supporters through its website, building what it calls a “mass movement.”